May 18, 2013

This Country Is Going Down the Tubes…blah…blah…blah

This is a rant post. Not sure where it is going.

Let’ face it, we continue to live in tough economic times. Since the 1980’s, people are not as comfortable as they once were. Incomes continue to decline for the average American. The rich keep getting richer, the poor keep getting poorer. Now, companies want to keep employee hours below 30 to avoid having to pay into the new Healthcare laws. Unemployment is higher than what is being published in the papers, since many people have stopped looking.

Poor economic conditions breed social issues

President Barack Obama and Warren Buffett in t...

President Barack Obama and Warren Buffett in the Oval Office, July 14, 2010. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I am not a social issues kind of person. I really don’t care how people live their lives. People need to follow the laws of this country. So, if we collectively agree that stealing is bad, we should not steal. I believe in secular government and do not believe that religious practices have a place in public education. If you want to practice religion, do it at your church, mosque, temple or religious school, whether you are Christian, Muslim or Jew. I don’t care.

It’s still about the economy

All the problems in the world today are the result of our economy of scarcity. As the population grows in the world, resources are being stretched. It is what drives anti-semitism, racism, ethnocentrism, religious extremism. Scarcity breeds the extremism. As individuals, we are victims of some other group who are taking more of their share than what I should be getting. It is so much easier to blame someone else than to look in the mirror.

So, what to do about it?

There are some things we can do. In the United States, we have more going for us than we give ourselves credit. Warren Buffett is bullish on the United States in the long haul. Let’s take a look at some of the tough things we could do right now:

  1. Congress needs to seriously consider the Simpson-Bowles recommendations for deficit reduction.

It is a bi-partisan idea that combines new taxes with major spending cuts. It’s all drastic. If we are serious about righting our ship, let’s get serious about doing something about it. The debt issue is a big one for us and needs to be addressed. It even has its own wikipedia page.

Citizens against Government Waste have found 4 easy waysto cut spending. Congress should get on it because they are common sense things.

  1. GM pay and GM jobs are not returning

Face it, GM pay and GM jobs are not coming back to the levels they once were. That era is over. We need to come to the realization that in some areas of our economy, we are starting over.

When Flint, Michigan’s lumber industry waned at the end of the last century, some Entrepreneurial guys played around with the horseless carriage. They started a company called Buick. Then, Billy Durant had an idea to build a big automobile company and formed General Motors. While his name is still relevant in Flint, I don’t think people recognize his contribution and guile of what he had really done.

I am sure that the people in the lumber industry lived through tough times while the local economy changed to this new industry that would change the world. They were starting over and the automobile industry led the way. We are starting over and we need to encourage the next wave of Entrepreneurs to find the next big idea to lead the world.

  1. We are an Entrepreneurial country!

I am a broken record on this topic. This country was built on the foundation of Entrepreneurship. We always have some winners and we have some losers. It is the core strength of this country that makes it so great. I talked to a prospect who hailed from England. His business targeted small business owners. The US market by far was more attractive than England because the number of companies that incorporate here was 5 times more than England.

Not everyone is born to be an Entrepreneur. It’s a game of winners and losers. That being said, tough economic times requires us to consider alternatives to getting a job. There are still a lot of segments of our economy that need services or could use some improvement. Some services that are being delivered today could be done differently.

Entrepreneurship and not Government is what will help us get out of our mess. Entrepreneurship history should be a part of our educational system. Politics is great, but commerce is what built this country. Our titans in business and entrepreneurship should be the heroes our kids should emulate – not pop stars.

Ok…I am done with my rant.

 

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Twitter – Is it really that cool anymore?

picture of paul lorinczi - wondering about twitter

Twitter has done some pretty incredible things over the past few years. It has participated in many incredible social movements including the Iranian Green Revolution and the Arab Spring. It has redefined how news get disseminated to people. Twitter users knew about the US Airways plane in the Hudson River than some news organizations. A Pakistani on Twitter was tweeting during the raid on Osama bin Laden’s camp. I will not take any of this away from Twitter. It has been a powerful tool.

After all of those wonderful things, not much of it has changed. The user experience has never been all that friendly. As an “NF” in the Myers-Briggs temperament category, for the life of me, I can’t write something in 140 characters. Abbreviating language to me is akin to Newspeak from the famous book by George Orwell, “1984”. How much more can we dumb down our lives?

picture of paul lorinczi - wondering about twitter

So, it begs the question, have they lost their focus? It seems that when companies start focusing their efforts on how to make money, their original purpose gets lost. Can Twitter honestly say that the user experience is the best it could be after 5 years? There are so many issues with Twitter. The biggest being that users have to “think” about how to use it. My friends over in England that run www.hungarianfootball.com will often do live chats of games for those folks with no access to a broadcast of either a Hungarian league game or a national team game. We can follow them pretty easy, its the other conversations. Yeah…yeah…I know we are supposed to use has tags, but again, using a hashtag requires thought on the users part. The Twitter app on my phone is not smart enough to suggest the hashtag. Why doesn’t it even suggest one?

What made Apple a great company when Steve Jobs was running it was the motivation was to make great products. If you make great products the money will come. The biggest stumble in Apple’s recent history was their maps product. Their motivation was not to create the best map product available, it was to hurt Google’s financially because the iPhone was a big revenue generator for Google. Once their motivation changed, they stumbled. The same criticism can be leveled against Facebook. Now that they have gone public, their focus is on meeting Wall Street’s expectations and not the expectations of their users. Facebook fatigue for sure. After all, what have they done recently? They created a system to mine your data, so they can sell it to marketers and meet Wall Street’s expectations. Has the user experience really changed all that much? No, not really.

I have always said that Social Media is much like Church congregations. Once people get upset with the minister, they will start looking for a new church to attend. While people may not leave either Facebook or Twitter en-masse, they could see active participation numbers start to slowly decline as they continue to down money first path.

 

Craigslist Scams

I have written several blog postson helping my cousin sell a property in Hungary. I had all these people from countries all over the world want to move to a little town north of Budapest, sight unseen. The result was I helped a lot of people uncover the scams before they responded.

Image representing Google Checkout as depicted...

Image via CrunchBase

Craigslist Scammer Mark Scott – aka some dude in Africa.

Now, I am trying to sell some items on Craigslist. We have sold on Craigslist before without issues. This time, we have some items that have significant value.

There are some rules to Craigslist.

  1. Cash ONLY!
  1. Don’t let them come to your house – meet them somewhere else.
  1. DO NOT USE Paypal or Google Checkout – they are scams

So, today’s scammer calls himself Mark Scott <mark...@yahoo.com>. He is using a yahoo account and judging by other sites, he is one of many.

This guy was clever because he acknowledges there are scammers out there, but his message seemed disjointed and he used bad English:

“I understand the present condition as started in the advert and i’m okay  with the asking price, i will not be able to come to look at it due to  the long distant andI will like to contact my lawyer about this before  making payment due to the scam artist.i got scammed from someone  the  easiest way for me to make the payment is through Google Checkout checkout.google.comand I’ll take care of the pickup and delivery when  the payment has been made by my mover, provide me your name, address,  city, state, zip code for the mover to calculate the cost of the  shipment and your google checkout email account for me to make the  payment.Please Email me back and let me know if this helps”

Before I did my research, I responded with the following and was skeptical about his intentions:

Mark,

I am following up on your interest in the trombone.

So, help me understand how you want to do this.

1. You want to pay through Google Checkout.

Ok – the price will go up to cover the fees associated with a credit card. We priced it for cash. I will calculate. I think it will be $35.00

2. Once we receive payment, we will release the trombone to your shipper.

The address to ship from is:

5348 N. Tacoma Ave
Indianapolis, IN 46220

Let me know what you want to do.

Paul Lorinczi

This is the email that convinced me he is a scam:

 

“this is legit business and i have the support of my

attorney on this so there is no need to panic, i

would have love to come over cash, it’s because of

the long distant and i’m very busy at work, i

understand that there are many scams going on online,

but to keep you rest assured, i will make the payment

before we proceed with the shipment. i find it the

easiest way to use my credit card safely and reliable

method of payment, you only have to add your

credit/debit card account to it and your money will

be transfer into your credit/debit card account when

the payment has been made, get back to me with your

google checkout email account when you done, for me

to make the payment.”

The English is really bad. So, I responded with another question:

Mark,

What is the name of your business and where are you located?

Paul Lorinczi

He responds with more bad English:

 

I am woring with Construction Company,I
I am from US in Atlanta GA, You dont have any problem ,I’m satisfied with the condition of it. I will be paying you through Google checkout(www.Googlecheckout.com) which is a fast, safe and reliable method of payment.. My shipping company will come to your location for the pick up when the payment is made provide me the recent picture of it, and i will need your full address for me to forward it to the shipping co for the calculation of the shipment costI finally ended it with:

Mark,I am not comfortable with this arrangement.

I have relatives in Georgia. I am willing to ship it to them and have them accept cash payment for the Trombone.

If you are open to doing this, I will get it arranged with them.

Paul Lorinczi

I have not heard from him since. Per Craigslist, I am reporting this one to the FBI.

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Is Facebook engaged in Click Fraud?

Forbes has written an interesting report on the possibility that Facebook is engaged in some major click fraud. Eric Jackson is referencing other articles he found regarding what is basically click fraud. Companies are being charged for clicks that are not real visitors, but instead bots. In the articles, the response from Facebook is comical.

Image representing Facebook as depicted in Cru...

Image via CrunchBase

Why am I giving a Facebook such a hard time? Well, their stock was manipulated by the bankers selling it. It just seems that the valuation and power they supposedly have is all artificial. To top it all off, the Ad Revenue could potentially be fraudulent. It’s turning into a smoke and mirrors play.

The bad news in all of this is we may be experiencing the social media bubble that some have predicted.

Here are the articles referenced by Eric Jackson:

Facebook Could be Faking Your Business Out

Do Not Advertise on Facebook Until You Read This

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Olympic Coverage on NBC?

I miss the good ole days.

The good ole days of Communist Hungary. You may be thinking,”are you crazy??!!!” Well, no, I am not.

Olympics on NBC

Olympics on NBC (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Back in 1980 when the US boycotted the Moscow Olympics, I got to watch them commercial free when I was visiting relatives in Hungary. I always loved the Hungarian announcers because they called the events with some humor and excitement. We were watching a rowing event and the announcer is calling positions and says to the Hungarian crew, “Hurry up Tamas!” It just struck me as funny because I don’t think we would ever hear one of our announcers inject some humor like this.

Today, it just seems that the Olympics on NBC’s stations is one big commercial. Why do I say this? Well, let’s take events with running clocks. Everyone knows I am a big soccer fan. So, I am spoiled because we watch our games commercial free for 45 minutes. You can’t watch the game any other way. It’s a running clock. So, I was shocked to see that NBC slotted commercials into the game.

Then, I was watching women’s field hockey. The US Women were playing Germany. They too operate on a running clock. It was a very good game. The US were down 2-0. In the 2nd half, they were doing all they could to get back into the game. So, as the game was heating up, NBC goes into commercial. Wouldn’t you know, the US scores to pull one back to 2-1 DURING THE COMMERCIAL! That just pissed me off.

Now, I understand that NBC is paying a lot of money to broadcast and they have to fill up inventory to earn a profit on their investment. But seriously! What ever happened to the actual sport of it all? It would be interesting to see how much time is given to commercials in an hour of broadcast of a sporting event. I guess that could be one of my personal goals in the coming days.

I still miss the good ole days when the sport was the focus of the Olympics, not the commercials that cloud them.

 

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5th Grade Graduation?

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As my youngest graduates from High School, we are attending many graduation ceremonies. My daughter has been invited back to her elementary school to accept an annual scholarship that is given to former students. For the life of me, I don’t remember 5th grade graduation. Complete with diploma. The only thing missing were cap and gowns.

The older I get, the more curmudgeon I am becoming a out all the adoration for our little snowflakes. Not to sound old, but we went to a park, ate hot dogs, played games and said “See you in Junior High.” Oh, our parents were not in attendance. They were at work.

In my house I was always told my job was to do well in school. Recognition did not come until graduation from high school. Our job and the expectation was to work hard throughout school. I remember the standards were pretty high. It was peer pressure driving it.

Today, it seems like everybody is a winner no matter what they do. Or maybe I am just becoming a curmudgeon. 5th grade graduation is not a celebration. It’s just part of a 12 year journey for a kid.

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Facebook stock manipulation watch – all the news here.

paul lorinczi thinking about something
Image representing Mark Zuckerberg as depicted...
Image via CrunchBase

Last week, one of my Wallstreet buddies alerted me to the possibility of the Facebook IPO as being illegal stock manipulation. As the week has gone on, more and more reports have raised questions. If you are following this story like me, it is all over the place.

Forbes

Forbes has put together a good article for the laymen to understand the art of valuation. Like most things in life, it involves “math.” There is a formula that is used to predict revenue. The benchmark most are using is Google. Yet, Facebook is NOT Google. It is a Social Media site. There are more than enough examples of social media services that have come and gone. Let’s see, remember “My Space” anyone?

Business Insider

Henry Blodget at Business Insider has put together a comprehensive accounting of the questionable practices of Facebook and Morgan Stanely. In a nutshell, they helped all their buddies, but left the little investor out of the inside information. As I say to my relatives, if you don’t have the truth, how can you make informed decisions. In the case of the “Muppets” as they are called by Wallstreet insiders, they don’t count.

Reuters

While Mark Zuckerberg is getting married and becoming a billionaire, others are claiming losses of $100 million dollars. The brokers on behalf of their “Muppets” are starting to fight back. This could get messy.

More to come on this topic for sure.

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Facebook stock manipulation – Day Three

linked in stock performance - Facebook stock manipulation?

There is not much that can be added to this story from a lowly blogger like myself. But I can give you some sources that provide more details into what has transpired over the past 3 days.

FACEBOOK Stock has been trading at $32.00-32.78 all day. It is up from its close of $30.00 yesterday.

If you did not see it Monday, there is a great info graphic that allows you to track the stock price.

Facebook infographic - Facebook stock manipulation

Remember Jim Cramer from CNBC?

I hope The Daily Show picks up on this one. Here is a classic quote from a guy that should not be on television:

Any investor who can get shares of the Facebook IPO should purchase as many shares as possible, Jim Cramer said on CNBC’s “Mad Money.”

-Mad Money, CNBC

Aswath Damodaran, NYU’s legendary finance professor who has nailed other stock valuations, has his say on Facebook

In a nutshell, it is overpriced and a risky investment. He is not buying yet, unless he can get it at value.

Last but not least, there are numerous reports everywhere about lawsuits that may be pending against Facebook and Morgan Stanley. Facebook’s response to all of it, “There is no basis for the accusations.” (unless you are blind to the data).

Dealbook reports on pending litigation

Dealbook reported pretty extensively everything that has happened over the course of the past 3 days.

Atlantic Wire scolds us to say, “We Should Have Known About Facebook’s Shady IPO.”

Their article takes us through all the warning signs. Most significant, the bad data was for institutional investors. The ignored data was for the “muppets.”

Unsourced quote from Business Insider, but an insight to Wall street thinking: “The one thing we worried about most ahead of the Facebook IPO was that normal people – “Muppets” they are increasingly called on Wall Street – would gamble on a big pop and lose after getting played by the pros.”

So, why track all of this?

It’s about trust. Ironically, a former Morgan Stanley employee told me during Enron that it was the biggest event to happen outside of 9/11. Enron destroyed the investor trust. The rating agencies were giving them a thumbs up when they were always a thumbs down investment. He said Enron would have major repercussions for the market. He seems to be right. Market manipulation is obviously pretty common now.

If we are going to preach free markets and let the market decide. Facebook’s IPO should have been allowed to let the market decide. I think most people will agree that its value is far less than 28-year-old Mark Zuckerberg would like you to believe.

Now I understand the Occupy Wall Street movement a little better.

 

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Facebook Update

Facebook infographic - Facebook stock manipulation

Facebook Stock closed at $31.00 today.

There are some interesting developments on the Facebook stock story I have been covering over the past few days. Wallstreet Dealbook has reported the following.

As I mentioned yesterday in my previous report on the Facebook question, both the SEC and FINRA are indeed questioning Morgan Stanly, Facebook and NASDAQ. With all the news coming out, questions about the integrity of the market are being pursued.

Image representing Facebook as depicted in Cru...

Image via CrunchBase

As of 2:46p today, the stock is trading down once again at $31.63 down from yesterday’s close at $34.14. It just keeps on dropping. Shares dropped 11% yesterday as investors sold off their stock and the big banks stopped propping up the share price.
Earlier today, Reuters revealed that Morgan Stanley’s, the primary underwriter of the stock, Scott Devitt adjusted his revenue forecast for the stock before the launch of the IPO. Morgan Stanley bankers ignored advice from its own people who advised that demand was being overestimated leading up to the IPO, Wallstreet Dealbook reports. Here is the questionable actions that beg the question of stock manipulation.


Once again, Facebook’s stock was down 6% in early trading and continues to fall as the day goes on.
If the market is not allowed to truly determine the value of a stock, is the value being quoted real?


Have Facebook executives created hype around value that is not there?
This is very possible considering these are the folks willing to buy Instagram for $1 billion and at one time threw out a valuation for Twitter that made no sense too. It seems some investors are waking up and starting to off-load their stock.
Dealbook reports: “It’s a combination of Zuckerberg’s ego for that $100 billion market cap, and the shareholders selling who wanted an exit,” an analyst tells Bloomberg. “Somehow it just missed them that this was mispriced.”
Let’s see where this all goes. Is a social media bubble coming?

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Facebook stock price

linked in stock performance - Facebook stock manipulation?

This is to follow up on my previous post on Facebook Stock Manipulation.

Will it be like Linkedin?

linked in stock performance - Facebook stock manipulation?

Facebook Infographic providing real time stock price

Facebook infographic - Facebook stock manipulation

More to come

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